The Daily Alpha: December 28, 2025

The Great Liquidity Pivot

The crypto market is caught in a psychological and technical trap. Despite positive structural changes (institutional inflows, end of quantitative tightening), Bitcoin ($BTC) remains rangebound. Expert analysts are split between believing the 4-year cycle is broken (leading to a shocking bull market in 2026) and believing the current stability is a bearish deception designed to trap retail traders. The consensus is that major moves are imminent, driven by shifting global liquidity and geopolitical events, not price charts alone.

1. Macro, Liquidity, and the Shocking 2026 Prediction

The most significant development is the widespread agreement that the traditional Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle is now unreliable. Market performance hinges almost entirely on macroeconomic liquidity cycles and government policy.

• The Shocking Bull Case for 2026: Leading strategists like Tom Lee (Fundstrat) believe the next bull run will be "shocking," arguing that the four-year cycle is dead and $BTC could hit $200,000 by January 2027 (end of 2026). This is driven by an expected flood of government-induced liquidity and rate cuts. Jesse Eckel (Milk Road) agrees, calling 2026 the true year of mania, as the Fed has completed the painful phase of Quantitative Tightening (QT) and is starting to ease.
  • References: DailyDoseCrypto: "Next Crypto BULL MARKET Will Be SHOCKING!" | Tom Lee Crypto (WATCH SEE), Milk Road: Why 2026 Could Be the Real Crypto Mania Year w/ Jesse Eckel, Altcoin Daily: How To Get Rich In Crypto In 2026 (The Next Solana) | Bitcoin Veteran
• The Bearish Counter-Thesis: Analysts like Benjamin Cowen and The Cryptoviser maintain a cautious view. Cowen argues that Bitcoin's current market mimics the 2019 slow-bleed bear market (an "Apathetic Top") and predicts a prolonged slow-down with 2026 being a "red year" before consolidation near the 200-Week Moving Average.
  • References: Benjamin Cowen: Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation, The Cryptoviser: Bull Market Coming 2026 (massive money printing)
• The Fed's "Big Print" is Imminent: Macro expert Larry Lepard warns that the Federal Reserve is already growing its balance sheet again, rebranding this action as "reserve management." He calls this "The Big Print" and cites the exact policy mechanics that precede massive inflationary events, predicting $BTC$ at $140,000 to $150,000 soon.
  • References: BTC Sessions: Escape the Fiat Rat Race: Bitcoin's Blueprint for True Financial Freedom

2. Institutional Takeover: Regulation and The ETF "Trap"

Wall Street is integrating crypto at an unprecedented pace, changing the game for both Bitcoin and altcoins.

• The CLARITY Act's 20% Rule (Altcoin Killer): US market structure legislation, particularly the CLARITY Act, may require that no single entity controls more than 20% of a token's supply or voting power to gain regulatory safe harbor ("Mature Blockchain" status). This fundamentally favors fair-launch Proof-of-Work (PoW) coins like Kaspa ($KAS) and Zcash ($ZEC) over heavily VC-backed Layer 1 projects.
  • References: DXB Crypto: 🔥🚨 CLARITY Act's 20% Rule: Why PoW Coins (Kaspa, Zcash) Solana, Sui & Sei | Full Altcoin Breakdown🔥, DXB Crypto: 🔥PART2: 🚨 CLARITY Act's 20% Rule: Why PoW Coins (Kaspa, Zcash) Sui & Sei | Full Altcoin Breakdown🔥
• The ETF is a Trap Warning: Bitcoin maximalist Simon Dixon (BTC Sessions) issues a severe warning that Bitcoin ETFs are a centralization "trap." He argues that large institutions like BlackRock are using these financial products as "Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction" to centralize $BTC$ supply, making it difficult for retail investors to move to self-custody.
  • References: BTC Sessions: Bitcoin ETFs Are a TRAP — Simon Dixon WARNING
• Banks are Fully Flipped: Michael Saylor notes the institutional flip has accelerated far beyond expectations. Eight out of the top ten U.S. banks are now engaged in crypto lending, with firms like Charles Schwab and Citi Bank preparing to offer $BTC$ custody and credit extension, confirming institutional embrace.
  • References: Swan Bitcoin: Why U.S. Banks Are Suddenly Embracing Bitcoin
• The CBDC Surveillance Threat: Professor B (Swan Bitcoin) warns that Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) pose an existential threat to financial freedom by enabling full surveillance and programmatic restrictions, emphasizing that Bitcoin's separation of money and state is the necessary countermeasure.
  • References: Swan Bitcoin: Why CBDCs Are a Threat to Financial Freedom

3. Technical Alert: The Volatility Squeeze

The technical indicators suggest that the current sideways trading is the "calm before the storm," with several analysts pointing to an imminent violent move.

• Imminent Volatility Squeeze: Crypto World (Josh) highlights that Bitcoin ($BTC) is undergoing one of the largest contractions in the Bollinger Bands on the 8-hour chart, signaling that a major breakout move—either up or down—is coming within days to weeks.
  • References: Crypto World: BITCOIN & ALTCOIN SQUEEZE: Time is Running Out!!!! - Bitcoin News Today, Ethereum & Altcoins
• The January Squeeze Target: The Simply Bitcoin analysis anticipates a massive January squeeze, fueled by $23 billion in derivatives unwinding and large bullish call positioning ($100K and $120K strikes). Flipping the Gamma Flip Level at $88,500 would force dealers to buy, accelerating the move towards Fair Value ($118,000).
  • References: Simply Bitcoin: Bitcoin's MASSIVE January Squeeze: TradFi Influence & Volatility Explained!
• Critical Bearish Breakdown Levels: The primary downside risk is tied to the $84,000–$85,000 range. Cultivate Crypto warns that a weekly close below $84,300 would trigger consecutive monthly sell signals, virtually guaranteeing a crash below the $74,434 summer low.
  • References: Cultivate Crypto: Crypto Crash Alert: 84K Breakdown Signals Major Sell Off! #shorts, Cultivate Crypto: Bitcoin Bear Case: 200D MA Test Then January Rejection
• Altcoin Bounce Requires $BTC to Clear $110K: Cultivate Crypto further states that the altcoin bull run is entirely contingent on $BTC$ clearing the 20-Week Moving Average and moving above $112,000.
  • References: Cultivate Crypto: Altcoin Bull Run Depends on BTC Above $110K

4. Altcoin Corner: New Rules of Survival

Amidst the general bearishness, a few projects show strong institutional momentum, but most face existential risk.

• The Brutal Truth of Survival: Michaël van de Poppe (Crypto Michaël) warns that most Altcoins will not survive 2026. He argues that the era of universal altcoin pumps is over due to diminishing returns, poor tokenomics, and the rapid obsolescence of old technology. Investors must benchmark their holdings against the overall altcoin market cap (Total 2) to ensure their capital is not losing value.
  • References: Crypto Michaël: Most Altcoins Won’t Survive 2026: This Is the Brutal Truth, Crypto Michaël: Which Altcoins Actually Survive Past 2026?
• XRP Whale Accumulation Confirmed: Despite boring price action, massive institutional demand persists. Japanese analyst Yuki Tomoya reports that Whale Investors bought 330 million $XRP in just 48 hours, viewing the current level as a prime buying opportunity. Furthermore, XRP ETFs have locked up nearly 1% of the total supply.
  • References: ビットコイン結城朋也 (@xx9): #リップル クジラが48時間で3.3億枚のXRPを爆買い, NCashOfficial: XRP 589 THEORY NOW PLAYING OUT!? | XRP HOLDERS PLEASE LISTEN
• Base Memecoin Plays: Analysts are betting on infrastructure and ecosystems. Toshi ($TOSHI) and Pengu ($PENGU) are highlighted as the clear leverage bets on the Base Ecosystem as it searches for its native token.
  • References: Roshawn Silva: $TOSHI TO BILLIONS IN 2026? (DON'T MISS), Roshawn Silva: $PENGU IS DOING HUGE THINGS! YOU'RE NOT BULLISH ENOUGH...
• Uniswap's Deflationary Catalyst: The Uniswap ($UNI) community successfully burned $590 million worth of UNI tokens from the treasury via a governance proposal. This drastically improves the long-term tokenomics by eliminating future selling risk.
  • References: Cilinix Crypto: $500 MILLION UNI BURNED! BULLRUN STARTING?🚨 (Uniswap UNI Price Prediction)

5. The Tech Frontier: AI, Mining, and Traditional Stocks

The convergence of traditional finance, AI, and crypto is creating new infrastructure opportunities.

• ICP as the AI "Serverless Cloud": The Internet Computer ($ICP) is positioning itself as the critical infrastructure for autonomous AI agents (AI that writes and deploys its own code). The speaker argues this is necessary because AI cannot interact with traditional systems like AWS. This massive, compounding demand for compute will accelerate $ICP$ token burns and its long-term deflationary goals.
  • References: Chart X Crypto: The Most Important ICP Thesis Nobody Is Talking About - ICP News
• Bitcoin Mining Crisis: The current economics of Bitcoin mining are dire. VoskCoin reports a severe profitability crisis, questioning why he would continue running his S19 Rigs given the unfavorable network difficulty. Conversely, the newer, highly efficient Antminer S21 XP models are breaking records.
  • References: VoskCoin: Bitcoin Mining Crisis: Are My Rigs Worth It Anymore? #shorts, VoskCoin: B60 System MELTDOWN: RIP Miners! Bitcoin Mining Disaster #shorts, VoskCoin: Mining Bitcoin: Efficiency Secrets Revealed! Miners Explained. #shorts
• A Contrarian Tech Stock Pick: The highly profitable, non-crypto stock UiPath ($PATH) is called "criminally undervalued" by How to Invest (Jake). Despite the stock falling 80%, revenue has tripled, and the company is perfectly positioned to capture a $25 trillion automation market by leveraging Generative AI as a tailwind.
  • References: How to Invest: Why UiPath Is Perfectly Positioned to Explode in 2026!

Disclaimer: This analysis is done by AI. It might be accurate or completely incorrect. Not financial advice.